Imagining the future: scenarios
In April 2008 students and staff were invited to attend a series of scenario-planning workshops facilitated by Richard Palmer.
Participants identified possible long-term changes in society, business, education and the environment. These ideas were grouped into three notional scenarios named Grey World, Green R Us and Ivy World.
Each scenario represents an extreme version of a possible future environment in which the University of Meloburne will operate. The scenarios can be used to test our ideas about an Information Futures strategy and implementation plan.
Grey World
Grey Power is the key driver - critical demographic shift – more over 60 than under 15.
Re-emergence of Renaissance/enlightenment ‘richness and wisdom’.
Quality of life – consumption regularly traded for increased ‘well-being’.
Flexible workforce – the norm becomes defined length, problem based engagement.
Privacy is a thing of the past - redefined because you have to ‘live’ online – second life becomes essential.
Quantum bio-computing brings a ‘technology’ leap.
Life sciences and culture drive the agenda.
Desktop computing 1983-2013 RIP – personal computing comes of age with ‘Virgil’s’ holographic enabled PDA phones – web 3.0 a reality.
Google goes bust as indirect revenue driven online business model becomes unsustainable. Universities take up the reins of managing this infrastructure.
University of the Third Age (U3A) becomes mainstream as older population engage with ideas and knowledge and issues.
Green R US
Global sustainability drives everything.
Economic playing fields become level so that resources can get to where they are needed – whether government or private funded.
Water becomes the primary foundation of wealth (replacing food, minerals and manufacturing).
Best and leading edge knowledge needed now.
All research becomes global and collaborative.
Students become cadet collaborators in addressing critical global issues.
Lock-step learning replaced by building skills and knowledge components as required.
Knowledge becomes open – public review replaces peer review.
UoM becomes a key player in several globally critical niche areas.
Ivy World
The rich/poor divide increased by rampant capitalism.
Information with any market potential is restricted to those who can afford it.
The Yuan is king as China grows.
Students graduate after multi-university studies.
Google digitizes all existing (western) literature and licenses it - access is at lower cost than universities can sustain their own at.
Lecture theatres become curated cultural artifacts.
Google Brains is the bazaar for the best scholarly talent.
Universities are gateways to their knowledge treasures – knowledge transfer is a primary driver of earnings for UOM.
UOM becomes a mega ANZ university to compete with top global players.
Harvard opens a campus on the Women’s Hospital site.
Monthly relevance ‘auctions’ de-fund bottom 10% and transfer $ to top 10% for research.
Information security big business to protect institutional knowledge.